Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Sensex, Nifty up 6-9% in 2 yrs but midcaps soar 44% it's Modi Magic

There would have been very few takers if one were to be told that the market won't rise even 10 percent in two years from the day NDA was elected to power. But as heartbreaking as it could be, promise of acche din fizzled out soon atleast for the market from May 16, 2014 to May 16, 2016. Results of general elections were declared on May 16, when BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won with a majority to form the new government.

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In the one year-period, from May 16 2014 the Sensex gained 15 percent while the Nifty climbed 16 percent. However, the indices fell off the cliff soon as Modi's magic began to dwindle  after a year BJP formed government with Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister. From May 18, 2015 (May 16 was a Saturday) to May 16, 2016 the market gave negative returns to investors. In that one-year period, Sensex lost 7 percent while Nifty fell 6 percent.

But, had one got little more patience and held on to stocks returns were healthy in the year after (of course not so good as in year-ago). From May 16, 2014 to May 16, 2016 the Sensex jumped 6 percent while the Nifty gained 9 percent at closing.

However, things are not so bad as it seems to be compared to global peers especially in the emerging market basket. In the emerging market space, while MSCI EM was down 22 percent, India was the third best performing market, after China and Japan in the period.

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